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Indian Rupee Logs Best Week In Over 5 Years On Oil, Fed Outlook

21 December 2018 / Evening Brief

Indian Rupee

  • The rupee settled at 70.1450 against 69.70 at the previous close. The local unit moved in 69.7225‐70.3150 per dollar band intra-day.
  • The Indian rupee recorded its biggest weekly rise in more than five years against the dollar, tracking the slump in crude oil prices which eased concerns of widening of trade gap at home, while the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its rate hike outlook. Falling crude oil prices are a game changer for India’s external sector. We expect the dollar rates to stay stable as the Federal Reserve adopts a more dovish stance and markets starts aggressively paring down expectations of further hikes.

Global Currency

  • The dollar languished close to one‐month lows on Friday, seemingly pressured by year‐end positioning with financial markets whipsawed by a collapse in oil prices, sell‐off in equities and a threat of a U.S. government shutdown. The safe‐haven Japanese yen benefited from the brittle sentiment. he dollar index against a basket of six major currencies stood at 96.421 after falling to 96.168 overnight.
  • EUR/USD has posted slight losses in the Friday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1422, down 0.20% on the day. On the release front, German GfK Consumer Confidence remained pegged at 10.4, edging above the estimate of 10.3 points.

Global Markets

  • Oil prices bounced higher in overnight trade as OPEC said it would make deeper‐than‐expected quotas of its output cuts public, optimism faded in early morning trade on Friday as crude headed for the largest weekly decline in a month.
  • Gold prices fell on Friday in Asia as the U.S. dollar recovered. Gold Futures for February delivery slipped 0.45% to $1,262.25 on the Comex exchange, while the U.S. dollar index, tracking the dollar against a basket of six currencies, gained 0.2% to 95.938.

Global Markets at one Glance

Markets at 5.00pm In INR % Change
USD/INR 70.155 70.155 0.23
EUR/USD 1.14199 80.18 0.08
GBP/USD 1.26595 88.85 0.33
USD/JPY 111.213 0.63 0.31
SEK/INR 8.9982 7.7966
DKK/INR 6.250 11.2250 0.49
AUD/USD 1.4105 49.77
DXY 96.591 0.33
Index Today % Change
NIFTY 10754 -1.81
SENSEX 35742.07 -1.89
NIKKEI 20166.19 -1.11
HANG SENG 25753.42 0.51
SHANGHAI 2516.2506 -0.79
CAC# 4662.74 -0.63
FTSE # 7264.61 0.0042
DAX # 10582.03 -0.27
Commodities Today % Change
GOLD # 1259.1899 -0.05
SILVER# 14.753 0
BRENT # 53.35 -1.84
NYMEX # 45.54 -0.74
Today Today
OPEN 69.7225
HIGH 70.3150
LOW 69.7225
CLOSE 70.1450

Key Events of the Day

Date Time Currency Event Actual Forecast Previous
21-12-2018 15.00 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q3) 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
21-12-2018 15.00 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%

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